海、陆两用风力发电实验平台设计

在风电场通过现场测试分析研究风力机性能由于受到现场环境的限制,能够获得的研究数据有限,室内模拟实验平台能够有效弥补研究不足.为此提出了一种海、陆两用风力发电实验平台方案.该实验平台由来风装置、风轮、发电机、两段式塔架、漂浮台、波浪产生装置、传感检测和数据采集系统等构成.在实验平台整体方案基础上,进行了结构参数设计,建立了漂浮台受力分析模型并获得了合理的结构参数,以Lab VIEW为开发环境设计了上位机运行状态监控系统.最后,基于构建的实验平台,开展了部分风力机动态特性研究工作,对比分析了模拟陆地风力机和海上漂浮式风力机时塔架振动特性,为进一步深入开展风力机动态特性研究提供了基础.     

城市疫情传播和复工强度建模及相关性分析

以多源大数据为基础构建模型,分析全国34个典型城市因疫情导致的人口迁徙变化和人力缺口,并通过迁徙基数推算其他各城市的复工强度。仿真结果证明SEIR仓室模型能够较好地模拟此次疫情发展趋势,利用其估计各城市内部新型冠状病毒感染肺炎的基本再生数,结合人力缺口对复工强度进行回顾性的矩阵分析,以总结我国此次抗疫经验。相关性分析阶段对K-means无监督聚类后的城市集群进行回归分析,结果表明对于大部分城市而言,复工强度的大小与其人力缺口、基本再生数以及人均GDP水平有明显的相关关系。     

自适应的无线融断网络路由算法研究

无线融断网络具有长延时、高动态拓扑、链路不稳定等特点,伴随着网络联接缺乏源端到目的端的持续性,为解决网络通信困难的问题,将多头绒泡菌的智能性和自适应性引入,提出一种自适应的无线融断网络路由算法。搭建无线融断网络模型,推导出链路容量的数学表达;设计下一跳节点的选择策略和最佳路由选择策略,实现在融断网络环境下的数据尽力投递。仿真实验表明,该算法能够在网络开销率较低的情况下,达到良好的数据投递,且平均延迟小。     

基于博弈论的化工园区合作巡逻策略研究

化工园区的生产活动对周围的大气环境和居民健康构成了巨大威胁,需要园区管理团队对化学生产过程和气体排放进行严格监管以保证空气质量,对各化工厂进行巡逻是一种有效的方法。基于博弈论研究多辆巡逻车的合作巡逻策略,提出了贪婪部署算法确定巡逻车的初始部署,采取静态分区的合作方法将化工园区划分成多个小区域,在化工厂和巡逻车之间构建巡逻博弈模型,通过MultiLPs算法计算得到博弈的Stackelberg均衡解。选取Antwerp化工园区进行案例研究,结果表明巡逻车可以将收益提高8.08%~35.24%。     

Nuclear Norm Subspace System Identification and Its Application on a Stochastic Model of Plague

The discrete-time model of plague is deduced by zero-order holder based on the continuoustime model. Due to the existence of stochastic disturbances, the stochastic model is given corresponding to the discrete-time model. The state estimation and noise reduction of the stochastic model are achieved by designing Kalman filter. Nuclear norm minimization is to structure the low-rank matrix approximation instead of the singular value decomposition in the process of subspace system identification. According to the plague data from the World Health Organization, the system matrices and noise intensity of the model are identified. Simulations are carried out to show the higher approximation capability of the proposed method.     

Dynamic Event-Triggered Control for Nonlinear Systems: A Small-Gain Approach

An event-triggered control(ETC) system transmits data packages and updates control inputs only when the predefined criterion is satisfied. In this way, network communication and computing resources are scheduled more reasonably in contrast to the traditional periodic sampling strategy.Small-gain approach proposed in recent literatures is a new modeling method to deal with nonlinear ETC systems. Different from traditional ETC models, stability criteria are proposed in the form of input to state stability(ISS) gain to design the triggering mechanisms. This paper introduces additional dynamic variables in this model and proposes a small-gain based dynamic event-triggered strategy.Sufficient conditions to guarantee the stability of the system are derived with the help of cyclic-smallgain theorem and Zeno behaviors are avoided to ensure the feasibility of this method in practical applications. Numerical simulations are given to demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach.     

Credit Scoring Based on the Set-Valued Identification Method

Credit scoring is one of the key problems in financial risk managements. This paper studies the credit scoring problem based on the set-valued identification method, which is used to explain the relation between the individual attribute vectors and classification for the credit worthy and credit worthless lenders. In particular, system parameters are estimated by the set-valued identification algorithm based on a given recognition criteria. In order to illustrate the efficiency of the proposed method, practical experiments are conducted for credit card applicants of Australia and credit card holders from Taiwan, respectively. The empirical results show that the set-valued model has a higher prediction accuracy on both small and large numbers of data set compared with logistic regression model. Furthermore, parameters estimated by the set-valued identification method are more stable,which provide a meaningful and logical explanation for extracting factors that influence the borrowers' credit scorings.     

Model averaging estimation for conditional volatility models with an application to stock market volatility forecast

This paper is concerned with model averaging estimation for conditional volatility models. Given a set of candidate models with different functional forms, we propose a model averaging estimator and forecast for conditional volatility, and construct the corresponding weight-choosing criterion. Under some regulatory conditions, we show that the weight selected by the criterion asymptotically minimizes the true Kullback–Leibler divergence, which is the distributional approximation error, as well as the Itakura–Saito distance, which is the distance between the true and estimated or forecast conditional volatility. Monte Carlo experiments support our newly proposed method. As for the empirical applications of our method, we investigate a total of nine major stock market indices and make a 1-day-ahead volatility forecast for each data set. Empirical results show that the model averaging forecast achieves the highest accuracy in terms of all types of loss functions in most cases, which captures the movement of the unknown true conditional volatility.     

多胺基针刺布的制备及其在H2S去除中的应用

为了解决含硫化氢(H_2S)废气的高效净化问题,直接以腈纶针刺布为原材料,通过一步反应制备了多胺基针刺布,测得其交换容量为5.9 mmol/g,并用红外光谱和热分析技术对其进行了表征;研究了碱液存在下多胺基针刺布对H_2S的去除性能及气体流量、碱液浓度、增重率、氧含量和H_2S浓度等因素的影响,结果表明碱液和多胺基针刺布的协同作用对气体中的H_2S具有优异的去除性能.吸附饱和的多胺基针刺布可用碱液再生,且再生后性能无明显变化,在所设定实验条件下,针刺布处理容量和碱吸收容量分别稳定在30.6 mg/g和697.2 mg/g左右.